Projected changes in electricity distribution costs in 2026

Distribution costs on an energy bill are a set of many fees that are divided into:

• Fixed costs: fixed network fee and subscription fee – depending on the power, voltage and number of consumption points,
• Variable costs: capacity fee, variable grid fee, quality fee, RES fee and cogeneration fee – depending on the amount of energy consumed and the period of its consumption.

 

Cost characteristics

The fixed network fee covers the costs of maintenance and operation of the transmission or distribution infrastructure, and its amount depends on the ordered capacity and the voltage level to which the customer is connected. The subscription fee covers the operator’s administrative costs, including the cost of readings, commercial service and invoicing. In 2025, there was also a transitional fee covering the cost of liquidating old long-term contracts (LTDs) concluded between energy producers and the transmission network. The government has waived charging this fee for 2026.

The capacity fee is intended to guarantee security of supply at times of peak demand. Entrepreneurs, unlike households and smaller customers (C1 to 16 kW tariff), are billed depending on the consumption profile. Therefore, every working day, the amount of electricity consumed by the consumer is assigned to one of four categories (K1-K4), which adjust the base rate:

• Category K1 (Cheapest): The difference between peak and off-peak consumption is less than 5% (flat profile). You only pay 17% of the base rate.
• Category K2: The difference is between 5% and 10%. You pay 50% of the base rate.
• Category K3: The difference is between 10% and 15%. You pay 83% of the base rate.
• Category K4 (Most Expensive): The difference is 15% or more. You pay 100% of the base rate.

The conclusion is simple: The more “flat” the consumption profile and the less energy you use between 7:00 a.m. and 9:59 p.m. on weekdays, the lower the capacity fee you will pay.

The variable grid charge is the cost of transmitting electricity through the grid to the point of consumption, i.e. it mainly includes costs related to transmission losses on the grid. The quality fee covers the maintenance of appropriate technical parameters of energy and the stable operation of the National Power System. The RES levy supports the production of electricity from renewable sources and mechanisms ensuring a high share of “green energy” in the national energy mix. The cogeneration fee is a mechanism to support the development of cogeneration, i.e. high-efficiency production of electricity with heat. The amount of variable fees is correlated with the volume of energy consumed.

 

Key drivers of energy price increases in 2026

An analysis of financial data indicates that the biggest impact on the final distribution bill in 2026 will be due to two components of fees, which are independent of the local Distribution System Operator (DSO). Other components of distribution costs are determined annually by individual operators.

Tariff Group C21 – Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

The C21 tariff group is intended for business customers from the SME group powered by low-voltage networks. For the purposes of the analysis, we assumed a single consumption point with an annual consumption of 150 MWh and an ordered capacity of 130 kW.

Depending on whether 50% or 70% of the energy volume is subject to a capacity fee, the forecasted increases in total costs for individual operators are as follows.

We estimate the average increase in distribution costs for the C21 tariff group at 10.19%. However, this scale varies depending on the operator and the energy consumption profile (share of consumption during peak hours of the capacity charge). The higher the consumption during peak hours (working days 7:00 a.m. – 10:00 p.m.), the higher the cost of the capacity fee.

It is therefore worth noting a paradox. Despite the fact that Stoen Operator recorded the highest percentage increase (mainly due to a low cost base in previous years), in terms of amount, it remains the cheapest operator in the list (approx. PLN 80,451 per year in 2026). Energa Operator, on the other hand, despite the smallest percentage increase, generates the highest nominal costs for the C21 customer, reaching over PLN 127,666 in the forecast for 2026.

 

B21 tariff group – a large customer

The B21 tariff group is dedicated to large industrial and institutional customers supplied from medium-voltage networks. For the purposes of the analysis, for the B21 group, we assumed an annual consumption  of 12,700 MWh and an ordered capacity  of 2,600 kW.

Depending on whether 50% or 70% of the energy volume is subject to a capacity fee, the forecasted increases in total costs for customers who do not have the status of an industrial customer are as follows.

For B21 industrial customers, the average cost increase is estimated at as much as 21.16%. This is more than twice as high as in the case of smaller companies from the C21 group.

In the case of the B21 group, the difference in annual costs between 2025 and 2026 can range from several hundred thousand to even a million zlotys, depending on the operator. For example, for the Energa Operator client, the annual cost of distribution may increase from approx. PLN 3.81 million to over PLN 4.58 million. Similarly to the C21 tariff group, the highest nominal cost was recorded for the seller Stoen.

 

Consumption profile role

A key takeaway from the data is the importance of the energy consumption profile. The final increase in distribution costs will be decisively influenced by the share of electricity consumption during the hours when the capacity fee is charged (working days between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m.).

The lists show that the difference in the share of the capacity fee (50% vs 70% of the volume) significantly affects the final percentage of the increase. For example, in PGE Dystrybucja for the B21 group, with a 50% share of the capacity fee, the increase is 19.76%, but with a 70% share it jumps to 23.82%.

 

Summary

The year 2026 will bring a sharp increase in distribution costs, driven mainly by the capacity fee.

For enterprises, the key to minimizing the effects of these increases will be not only to negotiate energy sales rates, but above all to optimize the consumption profile in order to limit consumption during the hours of the expensive capacity fee, whether to become an active customer using the system of discounts or by ensuring additional income from energy consumption. It is also worth thinking about investing in RES with maximizing self-consumption to reduce the volume taken from the grid. In addition, the audit of the ordered capacity and the verification of the demand for fixed capacity avoids penalties for exceedances and optimizes fixed fees, which are also subject to adjustments.

Do you need an individual cost analysis for your company? Contact Energy Solution experts: www.energysolution.pl